Genocide scholar, James Waller lists certain risk factors for violent or genocidal conflict. While these may not be definitive on whether a genocide is happening or likely to happen, these risk factors are useful guidelines to accessing a country’s risks for violent conflict or genocide. While genocides are rare, they happen. And certain conflicts meet the threshold for genocide.
Governance
Regime type
State legitimacy deficit
Weakness of state structures
Identity -based polar factionalism
Systematic state led discrimination
Conflict History
History of identity related tension
Prior genocides or politicides
Past cultural trauma
Legacy of vengeance or group grievance
Record of serious violations of international human rights and laws
Economic Conditions
Low level of economic development
Economic discrimination lack of macroeconomic stability
Economic deterioration
Growth of informal economies and black markets
Social Fragmentation
Identity -based social divisions
Demographic pressures
Unequal access to basic goods and services
Gender inequalities
Political instability
James Waller, “It can Happen Here: Assessing the Risk of Genocide in the US.” Center for Development of International Law and, Institute for Global Policy, New York, February 24, 2017
