What is Happening with the Iran Nuclear Deal?
With the election of the new hard-liner Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisi, they are less likely to make any new kind of deal with the United States. The old deal was weak, because they U.S. president could withdraw from it at any time. It would take 2/3 of the Senate to approve a last deal with Iran. That will never happen, unless some miracle occurs. Therefore, there is not much of a reason for Iran to agree to a new deal. They have sanctions imposed on them, but the leadership does not seem to care much about this, given they have access to huge countries like China and Russia.
Proponents of the deal like Obama, believed that given an incentive, Iran would shortly become a full democracy. Unfortunately, since then things have gotten worse. Women cannot walk around without head coverings. They torture and kill anyone who dares to speak up against the regime. The JCPOA, Obama’s deal became unpopular in the US. Trump got rid of it, and Biden does not plan to rejoin it.
For hard-nosed Iranian mullahs and Revolutionary Guards raised on tales of U.S. perfidy, the idea of trusting the Great Satan’s word—after he’s already fooled you once—is laughable. They see no real reason to pay any kind of price for such a weak agreement. All prior restraints on Iran’s nuclear development are gone. They are investing huge amounts of money into bomb making and missile-development programs. Many are starting to realize that the U.S. will either have to allow Iran to make nuclear weapons or risk the possibility of a full-scale war with Iran. That would be extremely deadly and costly which makes it unlikely the American public wants such a thing. But anything can happen and depending on what Iran does a full-scale war may be necessary.
Iran has continued to provoke other countries in the region, especially after Trump left office. Biden has no idea what to do about this issue, because the middle way is the only option. As Iran continues to launch proxies in Yemen, Syria and elsewhere, war is becoming more and more likely. Tehran sees U.S. weakness in President Biden, and from their perspective they may choose to take advantage of this. In recent weeks, Iranian-backed militias have fired rockets into American bases in Syria and Iraq, and Hezbollah has launched rocket attacks on Israel from southern Lebanon. Attacks by drones and hijackers endanger shipping in the Gulf.
In addition, the Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are opposed to Iran and worried about attacks. Iran has so far destroyed major Saudi oil fields and used its proxies in Yemen to directly bomb Saudi Arabia. Attempting to placate Iran and give it permission to build nuclear weapons will not end well. This is a very tricky situation and it needs to be handled perfectly or else it could cause a major world war to happen.